2020 MARKET FORECAST
Shaun Kelly, Tolman & Wiker, CALSAGA Preferred Broker
Now that we are in a new year, it is good to reflect on the past year and look at what to anticipate for the year(s) to come. Insurance rates and premiums are based on historical loss data, trends, economic conditions and many other factors. We are going to share some 2019 overall industry results, how they will affect 2020 and influence premiums and limit coverage. Then we will review the Security Industry, which is insured primarily through “Program Underwriters”. Many may be influenced by the overall industry results, but more often they beat to their own drum when it comes to premium and coverage changes based on their own experience.
2019 Industry Results
- Premium pricing across all-sized accounts increased moderately at 6.2% in Q3 2019, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of rate increases. Large accounts were impacted the most by the hardening market, recording an average premium increase of 7.6%, compared to 5.6% in Q2 2019.
- With the exception of Workers’ Compensation, signs of market hardening were seen across all commercial lines of business, which experienced slight-to-moderate pricing increases in Q3 2019. Umbrella and Commercial Auto were hit hardest in Q3, with average price increases of 9.8% and 9.1%, respectively. The average premium increase across all major lines was 5.9%, in comparison to 4.6% in Q2 2019 and 3.4% in Q1 2019.

Source: The Counsel of Insurance Agents and Brokers. Chart prepared by Barclays Research
Driving these rate increases have been losses in the property, auto and umbrella lines of business, coupled with low interest rates. Property losses, auto losses and low interest rates can be explained rather easily, however the claims that are piercing the umbrella coverage are becoming more frequent and much more costly than they have been in years prior. The introduction of “Nuclear verdict” and “Social inflation” have the industry concerned about the correct pricing that is required to cover future losses.
A “Nuclear verdict” can be defined as a settlement greater than would be expected based upon the facts of the claim and the nature of the injuries. Typically, settlements greater than $10 million.
“Social inflation” is more complicated and influences the nuclear verdict. Factors driving social inflation include litigation funding, the erosion of tort reform, negative public sentiment toward larger businesses and corporations, plaintiff friendly legal decisions and larger jury awards.
Media and plaintiff attorneys have done a good job of painting the picture of big bad corporations operating their business unethically, taking advantage of employees and reaping huge profits. Aggressive plaintiff attorneys are activating the emotional side of jurors and suggesting that corporations must be punished and pay for their wrong doing. Large nuclear verdicts are occurring more often and no end in sight.
Security Industry 2020 Forecast
The Security Industry (Program underwriters) does not always follow the information provided above, however there are similarities on certain lines of business. An advantage to having insurance in Industry Programs, based my 29 years of experience in the Security Industry, is that Programs respond slower to a hard market (Increase in pricing) and faster to enter a soft market (Decrease in pricing).
Except for Workers Compensation, premiums are firming up for the other lines of coverage for 2020. Lines of coverage that will be affected the most in 2020 will be Auto, General Liability, Employment Practices Liability and possibly Umbrella (If you have a large fleet of autos).
Auto insurance has been a loss leader for all Program Underwriters for many years and rates have been increasing each year. The only way Auto can be written, is when a complimentary line of insurance (General Liability or Workers Compensation) is written in addition to the Auto. Premiums for Auto written on a stand-alone basis are normally much higher. Expect premiums to increase significantly, or we may see insurance carriers discontinue writing Auto.
*Please note, if you have a large fleet of autos, you may experience increased Workers Compensation and Umbrella premium. With the frequency and severity of Auto losses, injuries to employees occur which result in Workers Compensation claims. Also, with more Autos, there is a higher probability of having a large Auto loss that could pierce the Umbrella coverage.
Rate variances on General Liability may be -5% to +5% in 2020, depending on your loss experience and operations. However, General Liability policies are changing and restricting coverage for certain types of operations. You need to review your policy to determine if you have any exclusions/limitations. For example:
- Low income housing
- Cannabis operations
- Liquor establishments
- Special events
- Schools
- Fast food restaurants
- Religious establishments
- Other
These exclusions/limitations are another way for an insurance carrier to reduce claim activity and not have to increase pricing. This way they can stay competitive, so please ask about coverage not just pricing.
Employment Practices Liability is a difficult conversation. If you have not had a PAGA or Wage & Hour claim you are lucky! And I would say, “If you have not had one yet”, watch out you probably will at some point in time. Premiums are increasing and expect increases each year going forward unless something changes dramatically. Premium increases vary based on coverage and deductibles/retentions and range from 5% to 15% with no claim activity.
Umbrella premiums will be affected by the Auto fleet and loss history. Limits up to $10 million are available at reasonable premiums, limits above $10 million may have coverage limitations and premiums vary.
In summary, except for Auto and Employment Practices Liability, expect minimal premium changes in 2020. Auto premiums are going to experience increases and they could influence premiums in other lines of coverage based on fleet size and loss history. I did not mention Property Insurance because this is not a significant line of coverage for the majority of our security clients. You may hear some horror stories regarding increases in Property Insurance premiums, the stories are true. Property premiums are skyrocketing for large property risks.
Thank you for your time.
Shaun Kelly joined Tolman & Wiker Insurance Services in 2005. He specializes in all lines of property and casualty insurance for industries including contract security firms, agriculture, construction, oil and gas. Shaun received a BS in Business Administration with a major in Finance from California State University in Fresno, California. He is an active member of several industry associations, including the Association CALSAGA, the Kern County Builders Exchange and the Independent Insurance Agents of Kern County. Shaun can be reached at 661-616-4700 or [email protected].

Tony Unfried holds a master’s degree in Public Affairs and Criminal Justice from Indiana University, where he graduated with honors. While enrolled in his master’s program, Tony worked for The TJX Companies, Inc., leading the region in loss prevention and moving the company toward technology use in Security. Tony went on to join the most significant security company in Indiana, managing more than 500 employees and 50 sites, including the Indiana Convention Center, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, and Ruoff Home Mortgage Music Center. Seeing a noticeable gap in technology use in the physical security sector, Tony created his first security software application, launched at the Super Bowl in 2012, and recognized twice for Excellence in Mobile Technology by Techpoint. Tony has also spoken on Tech in Physical Security on panels with ASIS and IAVM.
Jaimee K. Wellerstein is a Partner at Bradley & Gmelich LLP, and the Head of the firm’s Employment Department. Jaimee concentrates her practice in representing employers in all aspects of employment law, including defense of wage and hour class actions, PAGA claims, discrimination, retaliation, harassment, wrongful discharge, misclassification, and other employment related lawsuits. She also provides employment counseling and training in all of these areas.
Gregory B. Wilbur is a member of Bradley & Gmelich LLP’s Employment Department, where he provides aggressive and cost-effective representation to employer clients in a wide variety of proceedings in state and federal court and before administrative agencies. He has extensive experience litigating wage and hour class actions, PAGA representative actions, and discrimination, harassment, and retaliation lawsuits under various equal employment and whistleblower statutes. He has also represented clients in appeals of Cal/OSHA and Labor Commissioner penalty assessments, including seeking judicial review of administrative decisions.
Named to IFSEC’s Global Influencers list 2018 for Security Thought Leadership, Mark is a business school graduate, CPP and Member of The Security Institute (MSyI). Mark’s background is in security services, corporate security, consulting and workforce software. A graduate of Concordia University in HR Management and International Business, he progressed to several senior management roles responsible for security business units across Canada, including serving as the Senior Manager for Corporate Security at Canada’s largest telecommunications company. He launched a consulting business focused on physical security for corporate clients, and has been teaching part-time at the Université de Montréal since 2016. Currently, Mark is the Vice-President, Security and Industry, in the software scaleup TrackTik, and volunteers as SRVP Region 6, Chair of the Security Services Council, the Private Security Officer Standard Technical Committee, and the Private Security Company (PSC.1) working group
Jon Druker has been in software product development for 20 years. He started in translation and moved into various roles in communications and product development. He’s worked for small, medium and large corporations developing and helping to market solutions to meet complex problems in different industries, such as telecommunications, mobile and retail. Recently he’s been involved in marketing efforts to explain and position software solutions in AI and now he’s working at TrackTik in the Go To Market team.
Jaimee K. Wellerstein is a Partner at Bradley & Gmelich LLP, and the Head of the firm’s Employment Department. Jaimee concentrates her practice in representing employers in all aspects of employment law, including defense of wage and hour class actions, PAGA claims, discrimination, retaliation, harassment, wrongful discharge, misclassification, and other employment related lawsuits. She also provides employment counseling and training in all of these areas.
Annette M. Barber is Special Counsel on Bradley & Gmelich LLP’s Employment Team. She represents clients providing employment advice and counsel in all aspects of hiring, performance management, training, compensation, and termination. Annette spent the past 17 years working with a global security company of 100,000 U.S. employees as an employment law attorney and then as Corporate Vice President directing HR Compliance nationwide for all 50 states, Puerto Rico and Guam.